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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.