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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."